Forecasts Masquerade Quote by Nate Silver

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

— Nate Silver

“Once in a while, however, the future turns out to be very different from the past. It’s at these times that accurate forecasts would…

— Howard Marks

“predictions can’t vary more than the thing being forecast.”

— Richard H. Thaler

“Predictions are just good guesses or stories for the gullible.”

— Wynne Channing

“Predictions often give us an illusion of control in situations that are inherently out of our control. Nothing exemplifies this better than our relationship…

— Heidi Cullen

“people often make correct predictions on the basis of erroneous beliefs and defective prediction strategies.”

— Lee Ross

“Hundreds of studies confirm that human forecasts are flawed and biased. Human decision making is not so great either. Again to take just one…

— Richard H. Thaler

“Wherever there is human judgment there is the potential for bias. The way to become more objective is to recognize the influence that our…

— Nate Silver

“There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell them. As the great philosopher of uncertainty Yogi berra once said,…

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

— Nate Silver

“Predictions are but guesses - when they come true, they are prophecies; when they don't, we salvage the situation by calling them allegories.”

— Mike Klepper

“Relying on predictions alone is dangerous.”

— Roger Spitz