Faith Quote by Lee Ross
““people often make correct predictions on the basis of erroneous beliefs and defective prediction strategies.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Human Judgment and Social Cognition, 1996
People often predict correctly but rely on flawed beliefs and methods.
In simple terms: Correct predictions can stem from bad reasoning.
Key Takeaway
Question the basis of your predictions.
Themes
cognition
prediction
bias
Mood
skeptical
analytical
Type
psychological
educational
When to use this quote
- decision making
- risk assessment
- forecasting
Key Concepts
heuristics
error analysis
belief formation
Questions to Reflect On
- What assumptions underlie your forecasts?
- How can you improve prediction strategies?
A Different Perspective
Accurate outcomes don’t guarantee sound reasoning.
