One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921,45 is something that you can put a price on. Say… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is somethimg that you can put a price on.......Uncertainty, on… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.” — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
