One of the major biases in risky decision making is optimism. Optimism is a source of high-risk thinking. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic... As a result, scenario planning can lead to a… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Doubts are suppressed by groups... But remember that the internal incentives that shape how the group perceives risks and rewards may be… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Richard Thaler tells of a discussion about decision making he had with the top managers of the 25 divisions of a large… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Anthony’s current wealth is 1 million. Betty’s current wealth is 4 million. They are both offered a choice between a gamble and… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“To appreciate the asymmetry between the possibility effect and the certainty effect, imagine first that you have a 1% chance to win… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
If you think in terms of major losses, because losses loom much larger than gains - that's a very well-established finding -… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Lucky risk takers use hindsight to reinforce their feeling that their gut is very wise. Hindsight also reinforces others' trust in that… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
However, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Bernoulli observed that most people dislike risk (the chance of receiving the lowest possible outcome), and if they are offered a choice… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“For example, I recently came to doubt my long-held impression that adultery is more common among politicians than among physicians or lawyers.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long;… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
