Belief Quote by Daniel Kahneman
““Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.””
About This Quote
People mistakenly believe small samples reflect broader patterns, leading to overconfidence in limited data.
In simple terms: Small samples mislead about reality.
The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- medical trials
- market research
- personal anecdotes used as evidence
Key Concepts
Practical Applications
- use larger, random samples
- apply statistical confidence intervals
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we train intuition to respect sample size?
- When is a small sample legitimately reliable?
May underplay contexts where small samples are informative.