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Belief Quote by Daniel Kahneman

“Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” quote by Daniel Kahneman
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““Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.””

Daniel Kahneman

About This Quote

People mistakenly believe small samples reflect broader patterns, leading to overconfidence in limited data.

In simple terms: Small samples mislead about reality.

Key Takeaway

The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias.

Themes

bias statistics decision‑making probability

Mood

analytical cautious

Type

educational scientific observation

When to use this quote

  • medical trials
  • market research
  • personal anecdotes used as evidence

Key Concepts

representativeness heuristic sample size fallacy

Practical Applications

  • use larger, random samples
  • apply statistical confidence intervals

Questions to Reflect On

  • How can we train intuition to respect sample size?
  • When is a small sample legitimately reliable?
A Different Perspective

May underplay contexts where small samples are informative.

3.0 out of 5 (9 ratings)

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