Alcoholics Quote by Paul Samuelson
“Suppose it was demonstrated that one out of twenty alcoholics could learn to become a moderate social drinker. The experienced clinician would answer, 'Even if true, act as if it were false, for you will never identify that one in twenty, and in the attempt five in twenty will be ruined.' Investors should forsake the search for such tiny needles in huge haystacks.”
About This Quote
Source Article: The American Economic Review, 1975
Even if a rare success exists, treating it as impossible avoids wasted effort and false hope.
In simple terms: Treat rare successes as impossible to avoid wasted effort.
Key Takeaway
Focus on realistic, scalable solutions.
Themes
risk management
investment
probability
decision making
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
strategic
advisory
When to use this quote
- investment strategy
- policy design
- clinical trials
- business planning
Key Concepts
expected value
risk aversion
resource allocation
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you balance optimism with practical risk?
- When is it worth pursuing low‑probability opportunities?
A Different Perspective
Rare successes may still justify targeted research despite low odds.
![“When the economy was going up, [Milton Friedman and I] both gave the same advice, and when the economy was going down, we gave the same advice. But in between he didn't change his advice at all.” quote by Paul Samuelson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/0e0/paul-samuelson-9078_advice_when-the-economy-was-going-up-milton-fri_107897.jpg)
