Seeing the world Quote by Nate Silver

The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in…

— Paul Saffo

The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present.

— John Naisbitt

Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error…

— Nate Silver

“There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell them. As the great philosopher of uncertainty Yogi berra once said,…

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“predictions can’t vary more than the thing being forecast.”

— Richard H. Thaler

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

— Nate Silver

I deal in facts, not forecasting the future. That's crystal ball stuff. That doesn't work.

— Peter Lynch

“Our knowledge does not help us to forecast the future, but it makes us more certain that our guesses are the right ones. In…

— Chris Carter

Prediction is a very difficult business, particularly about the future

— Fred Singer

“Making specific forecasts in uncertain situations was, is, and will always be problematic and often misleading. This lesson stands today. The bigger the potentially…

— Bryan Norcross

People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far…

— Alan Greenspan

“Once in a while, however, the future turns out to be very different from the past. It’s at these times that accurate forecasts would…

— Howard Marks