“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.”
![“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When…” quote by Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/d3b/nate-silver-3166_annoyed_expert-estimates-of-probability-are-ofte_2056533.jpg)
![“Be annoyed and sin not" ~R. Alan Woods [2012]” quote by R. Alan Woods](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/742/r-alan-woods-1455_annoyed_be-annoyed-and-sin-not-r-alan-woods-2012_64285.jpg)
