America Quote by Charlie Munger
“Projections are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome, have a subconscious bias, and its apparent precision makes it fallacious. They remind me of Mark Twain's saying, 'A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.' Projections in America are often a lie, although not an intentional one, but the worst kind because the forecaster often believes them himself.”
About This Quote
Projections often reflect the forecaster’s biases and can be misleading despite seeming precision.
In simple terms: Biases make forecasts unreliable.
Key Takeaway
Question the assumptions behind predictions.
Themes
bias
forecasting
truth
Mood
skeptical
analytical
Type
cautionary
analytical
When to use this quote
- business planning
- policy making
- investment analysis
Key Concepts
statistics
cognitive bias
decision making
Questions to Reflect On
- What hidden biases influence your forecasts?
- How can you test a projection’s validity?
A Different Perspective
Overconfidence can blind forecasters.
![“They [Mc Donalds] take people and give them a first job, which enables them to get a second job. They do a very good job of educating troubled young people to be good citizens and they're probably more successful than charter schools.” quote by Charlie Munger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/a55/charlie-munger-458_be-good_they-mc-donalds-take-people-and-give-the_41809.jpg)
![“It is way less certain to be a wonderful business in the future. The threat is alternative mediums of information. Every newspaper is scrambling to parlay their existing advantage into dominance on the Internet. But it is way less sure [that this will occur] than the certainty 20 years ago that…” quote by Charlie Munger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/8d0/charlie-munger-458_advantage_it-is-way-less-certain-to-be-a-wonderful_59627.jpg)
![“I'll smoke, I'll cough, I'll get the tumors, I'll die, deal? Thank you America. [salutes]” quote by Bill Hicks](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/3d2/bill-hicks-970_america_i-ll-smoke-i-ll-cough-i-ll-get-the-tumor_655.jpg)
