The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.. — Edgar Fiedler Business Copy Share Image
Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything. — Edgar Fiedler Ends Copy Share Image
When you know absolutely nothing about the topic, make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who… — Edgar Fiedler Absolutely nothing Copy Share Image
Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard.. — Edgar Fiedler Answers Copy Share Image
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as… — Edgar Fiedler Future Copy Share Image
There is no such thing as a riskless hedge against inflation. — Edgar Fiedler Against Copy Share Image
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived… — Edgar Fiedler Judgment Copy Share Image
We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy. — Edgar Fiedler Economic Copy Share Image
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others… — Edgar Fiedler Down Copy Share Image
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just… — Edgar Fiedler Direction Copy Share Image
Economists state their GNP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor. — Edgar Fiedler Economist Copy Share Image
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver. — Edgar Fiedler Accuracy Copy Share Image
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but… — Edgar Fiedler Business Copy Share Image
For a politician, the long term is between now and the next election. — Edgar Fiedler Democracy Copy Share Image
To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough. — Edgar Fiedler Economic Copy Share Image
Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally… — Edgar Fiedler Always Copy Share Image
The public hasn't learned that businesses don't pay taxes: only people do. They're confused, and this makes an adviser's job all the… — Edgar Fiedler Business Copy Share Image
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion… — Edgar Fiedler Age Copy Share Image
At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of… — Edgar Fiedler Business Copy Share Image
If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model. — Edgar Fiedler Change Copy Share Image
