Forecasts Quote by Antoine Lavoisier
“It is almost possible to predict one or two days in advance, within a rather broad range of probability, what the weather is going to be; it is even thought that it will not be impossible to publish daily forecasts, which would be very useful to soci.”
About This Quote
Source Historical: 19th Century Scientific Thought, Antoine Lavoisier, 1790s
Early meteorology suggested short‑term weather prediction was feasible and that daily forecasts could become practical and socially valuable.
In simple terms: Weather forecasts seemed possible and useful.
Key Takeaway
Develop reliable short‑term forecasts.
Themes
science
weather
prediction
utility
history
Mood
optimistic
pragmatic
Type
informative
scientific
When to use this quote
- agriculture
- event planning
- public safety
- media reporting
Key Concepts
probability
meteorology
technology
Questions to Reflect On
- What data would improve forecast reliability?
- How can societies prepare for forecast errors?
A Different Perspective
Accuracy remains limited by complex atmospheric dynamics.
![“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When…” quote by Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/d3b/nate-silver-3166_annoyed_expert-estimates-of-probability-are-ofte_2056533.jpg)
