Customer Quote by Nick Gogerty
““Price mostly meanders around recent price until a big shift in opinion occurs, causing price to jump up or down. This is crudely modeled by quants using something called a jump-diffusion process model. Again, what does this have to do with an asset’s true intrinsic value? Not much. Fortunately, the value-focused investor doesn’t have to worry about these statistical methods and jargon. Stochastic calculus, information theory, GARCH variants, statistics, or time-series analysis is interesting if you’re into it, but for the value investor, it is mostly noise and not worth pursuing. The value investor needs to accept that often price can be wrong for long periods and occasionally offers interesting discounts to value.””
About This Quote
Source Book: The Little Book of Value Investing, 2015
Prices often drift until a major opinion shift causes a jump; value investors ignore complex models and focus on intrinsic worth, accepting long‑term mispricings as opportunities.
In simple terms: Prices move slowly then jump; value investors ignore jargon and focus on true worth.
Key Takeaway
Ignore noise, focus on intrinsic value.
Themes
value investing
market efficiency
patience
Mood
analytical
patient
Type
advice
philosophical
When to use this quote
- stock analysis
- long‑term investing
- buying during discounts
Key Concepts
intrinsic value
price dynamics
behavioral finance
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you differentiate noise from signal?
- When should you trust market price?
A Different Perspective
Complex models can mislead if over‑relied on.
