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Decision making Quote by Daniel Kahneman

“How do people make the judgments and how do they assign decision weights? We start from two simple answers, then qualify them. Here are the oversimplified answers: People overestimate the probabilities of unlikely events. People overweight unlikely events in their decisions.” quote by Daniel Kahneman
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““How do people make the judgments and how do they assign decision weights? We start from two simple answers, then qualify them. Here are the oversimplified answers: People overestimate the probabilities of unlikely events. People overweight unlikely events in their decisions.””

Daniel Kahneman

About This Quote

Source Lecture: Behavioral Economics, 2013

People overestimate unlikely events and overweight them in decisions, leading to bias.

In simple terms: We misjudge rare events.

Key Takeaway

Recognize and correct probability bias.

Themes

cognitive bias probability decision making

Mood

analytical educational

Type

psychological financial

When to use this quote

  • investment
  • policy making
  • personal choices

Key Concepts

behavioral economics risk assessment

Questions to Reflect On

  • How do you evaluate low‑probability risks?
  • What strategies reduce overestimation?
A Different Perspective

Bias can cause costly errors.

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