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Decision making Quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“This idea that in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you can’t know) is the central idea of uncertainty.” quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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““This idea that in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you can’t know) is the central idea of uncertainty.””

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

About This Quote

Source Book: The Black Swan, 2007

Decision‑making should weigh known outcomes more than unknown odds, embracing uncertainty.

In simple terms: Focus on known consequences, not unknown probabilities.

Key Takeaway

Prioritize what you can measure.

Themes

decision‑making uncertainty risk probability consequences

Mood

analytical cautious

Type

philosophical practical

When to use this quote

  • business strategy
  • personal finance
  • policy planning
  • investment
  • healthcare decisions

Key Concepts

behavioral economics epistemology probabilistic reasoning

Questions to Reflect On

  • How do you handle decisions with hidden risks?
  • What consequences can you actually measure?
A Different Perspective

Unknown probabilities can never be fully quantified, limiting precision.

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