Decision making Quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
““This idea that in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you can’t know) is the central idea of uncertainty.””
About This Quote
Source Book: The Black Swan, 2007
Decision‑making should weigh known outcomes more than unknown odds, embracing uncertainty.
In simple terms: Focus on known consequences, not unknown probabilities.
Prioritize what you can measure.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- business strategy
- personal finance
- policy planning
- investment
- healthcare decisions
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you handle decisions with hidden risks?
- What consequences can you actually measure?
Unknown probabilities can never be fully quantified, limiting precision.