Decision making Quote by Ward Edwards
““A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it as good or not must depend on the stakes and the odds, not on the outcome.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Decision Analysis in Medicine by Ward Edwards, 1995
Decisions are bets made under uncertainty; their quality depends on stakes and odds, not outcomes.
In simple terms: Good decisions are judged by risk, not results.
Key Takeaway
Focus on odds and stakes when deciding.
Themes
decision making
uncertainty
risk assessment
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
advisory
reflective
When to use this quote
- investment choices
- medical treatment plans
- business strategy
- personal life choices
Key Concepts
probability
expected value
stakes
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you assess odds before deciding?
- What stakes influence your risk tolerance?
A Different Perspective
Outcomes can be misleading; good decisions may still fail.
