“Financial crises—and most other failures of prediction—stem from this false sense of confidence.” — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
