Black swan Quote by Rich Jolly

“A Black Swan event has three important characteristics. 1. The event is unexpected, or considered improbable, to the observer. 2. The event has a…

— Rich Jolly

“The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,”

— Brad Stone

The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Black Swan has three attributes: unpredictability, consequences, retrospective explainability.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“It’s a phrase, black swan,” she said. “Means a totally unexpected event with a big impact. But one that seems predictable afterwards, with the…

— Mick Herron

In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long…

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,…

— Nate Silver

“Governments are wasting billions of dollars on attempting to predict events that are produced by interdependent systems and are therefore not statistically understandable at…

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“An “event” is something that happens that does not quite fit into our established system of knowledge, and so it will appear to us…

— Mark T. Conard

Events, like objects, fit their place, regardless what that may be.

— Mariana Fulger

It is the unforeseeable that creates the event.

— Georges Braque

I believe is that we can forecast the "changing landscape of context," and thus get insight into when we are entering the danger zone…

— John L. Casti