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Black swan Quote by Rich Jolly

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““A Black Swan event has three important characteristics. 1. The event is unexpected, or considered improbable, to the observer. 2. The event has a major impact on the observer. 3. In hindsight, the observer rationalizes that they "should have seen it coming." This, then, is a narrative fallacy””

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Black swan

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“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).”

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“The negative effects of virtuous turned vicious loops is an extremely important lesson to keep in mind.”

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“7. Remember It’s Only a Model—Always remember George Box's excellent advice, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The feedback and delays you…

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“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism”

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“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.”

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“Complexity can be categorized into two types: combinatorial and dynamic.”

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“if your business ecosystem seems stable, don't be lulled into a potentially false sense of security. Big changes can happen very quickly. Don't confuse…

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“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together (Cowgill et…

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More Black swan quotes

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Blood is the leitmotif of 'Black Swan.'

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No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan…

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“The narrative fallacy, Bezos explained, was a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan to describe how humans…

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With 'Black Swan,' the ballerina saga flips its tiara and goes on a hallucinatory bender, a scary acid trip where transfiguration and disfiguration meet.

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“The Black Swan,”

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