“The negative effects of virtuous turned vicious loops is an extremely important lesson to keep in mind.” — Rich Jolly Mistake Copy Share Image
“Using system models to identify high leverage points is the primary method of finding unanticipated solutions!” — Rich Jolly Problem Copy Share Image
“Complexity can be categorized into two types: combinatorial and dynamic.” — Rich Jolly Complexity Copy Share Image
“Senge (1990) introduced the idea of system archetypes as being connections of feedback loops and delays” — Rich Jolly Archetypes Copy Share Image
“The Dao that can be told is not the eternal Dao. Lao Tzu, First verse of Tao Te Ching” — Rich Jolly Heaven and earth Copy Share Image
“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.” — Rich Jolly Architecture Copy Share Image
“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).” — Rich Jolly Habits Copy Share Image
“In a prioritized list of further reading on this topic, there is no question what comes first: Peter Senge's The Fifth Discipline.” — Rich Jolly Discipline Copy Share Image
“Systems reside in a nested structure; that is, each component in a system is a system in itself. And every system we… — Rich Jolly Nested Copy Share Image
“5. Search for Leverage Points and Potential Unintended Consequences of Interventions—When a model produces dynamic behavior like the real system, start to… — Rich Jolly Unintended consequences Copy Share Image
“Just because an individual ant seems to wander around aimlessly, doesn't mean a colony of ants will behave this way. This is… — Rich Jolly Ants Copy Share Image
“In the early phases, the structure exhibits exponential growth. This identifies the reinforcing loop. However, the balancing loop is effectively dormant. It's… — Rich Jolly Exponential growth Copy Share Image
“7. Remember It’s Only a Model—Always remember George Box's excellent advice, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The feedback and… — Rich Jolly Feedback Copy Share Image
“Delay is another crucial component in the structure of dynamic systems. In most cases, the process of feedback is not instantaneous. As… — Rich Jolly Change Copy Share Image
“Emergence: A phenomenon where an interaction among objects at one level generates new types of objects at another level. The emergent characteristic… — Rich Jolly Emergence Copy Share Image
“Page lists four types of relevant diversity: o Diversity in perspectives: ways of representing. o Diversity in interpretations: categorizing. o Diversity in… — Rich Jolly Diversity Copy Share Image
“In his excellent book Turtles, Termites, and Traffic Jams (1997), Mitchel Resnick outlines a list of five heuristics associated with the aggregation… — Rich Jolly Books Copy Share Image
“The term we use for the unanticipated result from these interactions is emergence. While not all interactions create emergent effects, when emergence… — Rich Jolly Emergence Copy Share Image
“Deductive reasoning, the bedrock of the scientific method, begins with a new theory which leads to a prediction (a hypothesis). The real… — Rich Jolly Induction Copy Share Image
“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“if your business ecosystem seems stable, don't be lulled into a potentially false sense of security. Big changes can happen very quickly.… — Rich Jolly Big changes Copy Share Image
“Combinatorial complexity is well understood and can be tackled in an engineering fashion. For example, the airline schedule is usually built using… — Rich Jolly Complexity Copy Share Image
“The idea of antifragility, for which evolution is the most important example, gives us tremendous guidance: o Seek out low-cost options in… — Rich Jolly Evolution Copy Share Image
“systems theory or, as some people might call it, complexity theory? The simplest explanation is that it is the study of interactions.” — Rich Jolly Complexity Copy Share Image
“To paraphrase Surowiecki and Mackay, there can be a fine line between the Wisdom of Crowds and the Madness of Crowds.” — Rich Jolly Crowds Copy Share Image
“In real life situations, there are often many feedback loops present, with perhaps several dormant feedback loops lying in wait.” — Rich Jolly Life Copy Share Image
“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism” — Rich Jolly Freedom Copy Share Image
“The core idea behind the wisdom of crowds effect is that diverse knowledge and expertise is being collected and aggregated. Essentially, it… — Rich Jolly Wisdom Copy Share Image
“Diversity Prediction Theorem, which asserts that diversity and accuracy contribute equally to group performance. This says, in essence, that it is equally… — Rich Jolly Diversity Copy Share Image
“at its core, the Black Swan is a modeling problem. The observer has deemed the event improbable based on their existing experiences… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“There Is Value in Trial and Error—Sponsor trial and error in your organization—viva la entrepreneur. Take the example of Google. Google allows… — Rich Jolly Business Copy Share Image
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together… — Rich Jolly Investing Copy Share Image
“It was the dominance of the choice to rat out the other that drove the group to a deficient outcome. The individuals… — Rich Jolly Dominance Copy Share Image
“Key Idea for Qualitative Dynamics: Structure Impacts Behavior Through Time” — Rich Jolly Architecture Copy Share Image
“sharing of information has increased the efficacy of the organization.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Some of the world's best poker players use random choice to determine when to bluff.” — Rich Jolly Choice Copy Share Image
“Dynamic simulators create the behavior of the system by solving the imbedded sets of differential equations using mathematical approximation techniques.” — Rich Jolly Habits Copy Share Image
“The two reinforcing loops take on different natures: virtuous to the successful and vicious to the unsuccessful.” — Rich Jolly Failure Copy Share Image
