Predictions Quote by Nate Silver
“We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.”
About This Quote
Source Interview: FiveThirtyEight Podcast, 2021
Aim for high but realistic predictive accuracy; perfection is unnecessary and may indicate mis‑calibration.
In simple terms: Target 80‑85% accuracy, not 100%.
Focus on reliable models.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- forecasting
- policy planning
- investment decisions
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- What is an acceptable error margin?
- How do we detect mis‑calibration?
Over‑optimizing can waste resources.