Asks Quote by Michio Kaku
“They basically ask their engineers to volunteer some probability figures, then they take the average. This is not science. This is voodoo,”
About This Quote
Source Talk: Science and Society conference, 2021
Engineers are asked to estimate probabilities subjectively, then averaged, which the speaker deems unscientific and akin to superstition.
In simple terms: Subjective averaging of estimates is unscientific.
Key Takeaway
Use rigorous statistical methods.
Themes
science
probability
methodology
Mood
analytical
critical
Type
advice
philosophical
When to use this quote
- engineering projects
- risk assessment
- policy making
Key Concepts
subjective bias
statistical rigor
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we improve probability estimation?
- What safeguards prevent bias in averaging?
A Different Perspective
Data may be scarce.
