Consequence Quote by Francis Collins
“A technological advance of a major sort almost always is overestimated in the short run for its consequences - and underestimated in the long run.”
About This Quote
Source Speech: Interview on Scientific Forecasting, 2015
People tend to hype new tech benefits early and ignore its lasting impact later.
In simple terms: Tech hype is short term, impact is long term.
Key Takeaway
Balance optimism with realistic timelines.
Themes
technology
forecasting
optimism
impact
risk
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
analytical
strategic
When to use this quote
- policy planning
- investment decisions
- technology adoption
- public communication
Key Concepts
innovation cycles
societal change
economic effects
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we better predict long‑term effects?
- What mechanisms reduce short‑term overestimation?
A Different Perspective
Short‑term hype can mislead funding and regulation.
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