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Future Quote by Roy Amara

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” quote by Roy Amara
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““We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.””

Roy Amara

About This Quote

Source Speech: Technology Forecasting, 1970s

People often misjudge technology's impact, seeing it too big now and too small later.

In simple terms: We misjudge tech's short and long term effects.

Key Takeaway

Adjust expectations over time.

Themes

technology forecasting perception time innovation

Mood

cautious analytical

Type

advisory reflective

When to use this quote

  • product planning
  • investment decisions
  • policy making
  • personal tech adoption

Key Concepts

cognitive bias diffusion of innovation system dynamics

Questions to Reflect On

  • How do you balance excitement with caution?
  • What long‑term impacts might you be overlooking?
A Different Perspective

Short‑term hype can mask long‑term disruption.

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