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Future Quote by Roy Amara

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” quote by Roy Amara
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““We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.””

Roy Amara

About This Quote

Short‑term hype inflates technology impact, while long‑term effects are often missed.

In simple terms: We overvalue immediate tech impact, undervalue future impact.

Key Takeaway

Check both near and distant outcomes.

Themes

technology prediction future bias analysis

Mood

cautious analytical inquisitive

Type

Future:1 Long run:1 Overestimate:1 Predictions:1 Technology:1 Underestimate:1 Tend Overestimate:1 Underestimate Effect:1 Overestimate Effect:1

When to use this quote

  • product launches
  • policy making
  • investment decisions
  • long‑term research
  • career planning

Key Concepts

overestimation underestimation temporal bias strategic planning risk assessment

Questions to Reflect On

  • How can we balance optimism with realism?
  • What methods reveal hidden long‑term effects?
A Different Perspective

Short‑term data can mislead long‑term strategy.

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