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Bias Quote by Daniel Kahneman

“The worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.” quote by Daniel Kahneman
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““The worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.””

Daniel Kahneman

About This Quote

Source Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011

People tend to overestimate how predictable outcomes were after they occur, especially when outcomes are severe.

In simple terms: We think we knew it all along after bad results.

Key Takeaway

Recognize hindsight bias and question certainty.

Themes

cognition bias decision making

Mood

reflective analytical

Type

psychological educational

When to use this quote

  • post‑mortem analysis
  • risk assessment
  • policy review

Key Concepts

Hindsight bias overconfidence

Questions to Reflect On

  • How does severity affect your confidence in predictions?
  • What steps can reduce hindsight bias?
A Different Perspective

Bias can distort learning if not checked.

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