Bias Quote by Daniel Kahneman
““The worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011
People tend to overestimate how predictable outcomes were after they occur, especially when outcomes are severe.
In simple terms: We think we knew it all along after bad results.
Recognize hindsight bias and question certainty.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- post‑mortem analysis
- risk assessment
- policy review
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- How does severity affect your confidence in predictions?
- What steps can reduce hindsight bias?
Bias can distort learning if not checked.