The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“This should not come as a surprise: overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects are found everywhere. Amos and I coined… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster.… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy. We focus… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Plans are best-case scenarios. Let’s avoid anchoring on plans when we forecast actual outcomes. Thinking about ways the plan could go wrong… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic... As a result, scenario planning can lead to a… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“He labels his proposal the premortem. The procedure is simple: when the organization has almost come to an important decision but has… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“For example, I recently came to doubt my long-held impression that adultery is more common among politicians than among physicians or lawyers.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long;… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
