Bother Quote by Richard Hamming
“If the prior distribution, at which I am frankly guessing, has little or no effect on the result, then why bother; and if it has a large effect, then since I do not know what I am doing how would I dare act on the conclusions drawn?”
About This Quote
Questioning the influence of prior assumptions on conclusions and the confidence to act on them.
In simple terms: Priors affect results; uncertainty hinders action.
Key Takeaway
Validate assumptions before deciding.
Themes
statistics
uncertainty
decision making
philosophy
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
philosophical
practical
When to use this quote
- research
- policy making
- personal decisions
Key Concepts
Bayesian inference
epistemic humility
Questions to Reflect On
- What priors shape your judgments?
- When is it safe to act despite uncertainty?
A Different Perspective
Priors may be mis-specified.
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