““Psychologists have identified three distinct phases in a human's response to disasters. The first is denial. Previous wildfires had brought a series of near misses to the Ridge, and the memory of these experiences was powerful, bringing with it a false sense of security. Denial was partly why people called friends and family members or scrolled indefinitely through their Facebook news feed instead of taking action. Others focused on their belongings, wasting valuable time cramming their vehicles instead of getting out. Facing the unknown, they found security in their possessions. Psychologists have found that at least 75 percent of people in a catastrophe remain frozen in this state of inaction. After denial came the second and third phases - deliberation and action. Though the Town of Paradise had practiced evacuating before, people often made irrational choices when it mattered. Like passengers in airplane crashes - who often ignore closer exits to follow the crowd - drivers mindlessly headed in a conga line toward the Skyway, not thinking of alternatives. They ignored other open roads and paused at red lights and stop signs, even though police certainly wouldn't have ticketed them for blasting through the intersections. Others chose not to evacuate at all, overestimating their abilities and chances of survival. This sense of exceptionalism has come to be known as the Lake Wobegon effect, a term coined by a physician in the 1980s after he noticed that hundred of elementary schools across the nation claimed their students were above average - which, statistically, could not be true. The elderly were particularly guilty of this thinking, because input from others did little to sway a lifetime of survived experiences. Disliking change and the hassle of an evacuation, they often underestimated a wildfire's risk. In many cases, it took a specific moment - witnessing a neighbor's house burning down or receiving a call from a family member with orders to evacuate - for a resident to think and react rationally to the crisis at hand. How quickly a person arrived at this phase depend on genetics, experience, and training.””
