““My opponent . . . what is he going to do? In game theory analysis the followers of eighteenth-century statistician Thomas Bayes hold that the world is made up of constantly changing knowledge, and in determining the probability of an event—what Zagaev was planning, in this case—you have to continually readjust your predictions as you learn new bits of information. The odds that he’ll play rock, as opposed to paper or scissors, change from 331/3 percent, for instance, if you learn that your opponent has a muscle problem that makes it painful for him to form a fist. But””
