Campaign Quote by Henry L. Stimson
“The Japanese campaign involves therefore two great uncertainties; first, whether Russia will come in though we think that will be all right; and second, when and how S-1 will resolve itself.”
About This Quote
Source Speech: 1939 Military Briefing, United States, 1939
Stimson highlights two key unknowns in the Japanese campaign: Russian involvement and the resolution of the S‑1 issue.
In simple terms: Uncertainty about Russian support and S‑1 outcome.
Key Takeaway
Plan for contingencies.
Themes
military strategy
geopolitics
uncertainty
risk assessment
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
strategic
historical
When to use this quote
- war planning
- diplomatic negotiations
- intelligence assessment
Key Concepts
strategic forecasting
political analysis
Questions to Reflect On
- How would a Russian entry change your strategy?
- What alternatives exist if S‑1 fails?
A Different Perspective
If Russia intervenes, the balance of power shifts dramatically.
![“Notably, it was only possible [ negotiating on the Tarabarov Island], and this is very important, due to the high level of trust Russia and China reached in their relations by that time. If we reach the same level of trust with Japan, we might be able to reach certain compromises.” quote by Vladimir Putin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/3a8/vladimir-putin-261_able_notably-it-was-only-possible-negotiating_621170.jpg)
![“We face the delicate question of the diplomatic fencing to be done so as to be sure Japan is put into the wrong and makes the first bad move. ... The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into the position of firing the first shot.” quote by Henry L. Stimson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/a5d/henry-l-stimson-19815_delicate_we-face-the-delicate-question-of-the-dip_768422.jpg)
