Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
I don't try to be clever at all. The idea that I could see what no one else can is an illusion. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [investment management] industry. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“The illusion that one has understood the past feeds the further illusion that one can predict and control the future. These illusions… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact,… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Finally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakable… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“What you learned about the Müller-Lyer illusion did not change the way you see the lines, but it changed your behavior. You… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“The mistake that people make in the focusing illusion involves attention to selected moments and neglect of what happens at other times.… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“For example, I recently came to doubt my long-held impression that adultery is more common among politicians than among physicians or lawyers.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long;… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
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