I once read about a meeting of economists who agreed that…
“I once read about a meeting of economists who agreed that if their forecasts were 33 1/3 % correct, that was considered a high mark in their profession. Well, of course, I know you cannot invest in securities successfully with odds like that against you if you place dependence solely upon judgement as to the right securities to own and the right time or price to buy them. Then, too, I read somewhere about the man who described an economist as resembling ‘a professor of anatomy who was still a virgin.’”
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Economists’ forecasts are often only marginally accurate, making reliance on pure judgment for investing risky.
In simple terms: Forecasts are rarely precise; judgment alone is insufficient.
Key Takeaway
Diversify and use systematic analysis.
Themes
investment
risk
forecasting
judgment
probability
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
advice
warning
When to use this quote
- portfolio construction
- risk management
- financial planning
- investment education
Key Concepts
behavioral economics
probabilistic reasoning
market efficiency
Questions to Reflect On
- How can investors mitigate the limits of expert forecasts?
- What systematic tools improve decision making?
A Different Perspective
Even modestly accurate forecasts can mislead without proper risk controls.