Failure Quote by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
““And it is certainly possible that lying played a role in the failure of the polls to predict Donald Trump’s 2016 victory. Polls, on average, underestimated his support by about 2 percentage points. Some people may have been embarrassed to say they were planning to support him. Some may have claimed they were undecided when they were really going Trump’s way all along.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Everybody Lies by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, 2017
People may hide true preferences, causing poll inaccuracies, especially for controversial candidates.
In simple terms: Hidden opinions skew poll results.
Key Takeaway
Account for social desirability bias in surveys.
Themes
politics
truth
polling
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
research
insightful
When to use this quote
- election forecasting
- market research
- public opinion surveys
Key Concepts
social desirability
bias
prediction
Questions to Reflect On
- How can pollsters reduce underreporting?
- What methods reveal true voter intent?
A Different Perspective
Polls can still be useful if adjusted for bias.
