Long run Quote by Richard Feynman
““It’s really quite easy,” he said. “I’m standing around a table, when some guy says, ‘It’s comin’ out nine! It’s gotta be a nine!’ The guy’s excited; he thinks it’s going to be a nine, and he wants to bet. Now I know the odds for all the numbers inside out, so I say to him, ‘I’ll bet you four to three it’s not a nine,’ and I win in the long run. I don’t bet on the table; instead, I bet with people around the table who have prejudices—superstitious ideas about lucky numbers.” Nick””
About This Quote
Source Interview: The Pleasure of Finding Things Out, 1981
Understanding that betting on people’s biases, not random odds, yields consistent advantage.
In simple terms: Bet on people’s superstitions, not the game itself.
Key Takeaway
Identify and exploit predictable biases.
Themes
probability
behavioral economics
gambling
decision making
Mood
analytical
strategic
Type
advisory
insightful
When to use this quote
- casino games
- stock trading
- sports betting
- political campaigns
Key Concepts
biases
expected value
long-term strategy
Questions to Reflect On
- How can you spot reliable biases?
- When does exploiting bias become unethical?
A Different Perspective
People may change beliefs, making bias exploitation risky.
![“[U]nless oppressed groups stick together, and on alliances of self interest rather than do-goodism; nothing can be accomplished in the long run to dismantle the apparatus of oppression.” quote by Shulamith Firestone](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/d7b/shulamith-firestone-12980_accomplished_u-nless-oppressed-groups-stick-together_5485.jpg)
