Life Quote by Peter L. Bernstein
““But therein lies the logician's trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, 1996
Statistical models assume independent observations, but real‑world data are sequential events, creating a logical fallacy.
In simple terms: Real data are linked, not independent.
Key Takeaway
Treat data as sequences, not isolated points.
Themes
statistics
logic
risk
probability
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
theoretical
practical
When to use this quote
- financial forecasting
- machine learning
- epidemiology
- policy analysis
- risk assessment
Key Concepts
causality
temporal dependence
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you account for temporal dependence?
- What risks arise from treating events as independent?
A Different Perspective
Assuming independence can mislead conclusions.
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![“[T]he “Law Of Frequency Of Error”. . . reigns with serenity and in complete self-effacement amidst the wildest confusion. The huger the mob . . . the more perfect is its sway. It is the supreme law of Unreason. Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand . . . an unsuspected and…” quote by Peter L. Bernstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/520/peter-l-bernstein-27498_law_t-he-law-of-frequency-of-error-reigns-wi_2074377.jpg)
