Bases Quote by Peter Cundill
“I think that intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will in fact happen in the future. Its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. Forecasting should be used as a device to put both problems and opportunities into perspective. It is a management tool, but it can never be a substitute for strategy, nor should it ever be used as the primary basis for portfolio investment decisions.”
About This Quote
Source Book: The Intelligent Investor’s Guide to Forecasting, 2005
Forecasts should clarify possibilities, not dictate outcomes; they aid strategy, not replace it.
In simple terms: Use forecasts as a tool, not a decision maker.
Key Takeaway
Treat forecasts as guidance, not certainty.
Themes
strategy
uncertainty
forecasting
management decisionmaking
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
business
financial
When to use this quote
- budgeting
- product development
- investment analysis
- risk management
Key Concepts
scenario planning
risk assessment
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you balance data with intuition?
- What safeguards prevent forecasts from becoming dogma?
A Different Perspective
Over‑reliance on forecasts can lead to strategic rigidity.
![“Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to…” quote by George Friedman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/7fb/george-friedman-7436_accidents_now-if-you-can-recognize-and-memorize-a_900589.jpg)
