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Adviser Quote by Paul Samuelson

“Even fans of actively managed funds often concede that most other investors would be better off in index funds. But buoyed by abundant self-confidence, these folks aren't about to give up on actively managed funds themselves. A tad delusional? I think so. Picking the best-performing funds is 'like…” quote by Paul Samuelson
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“Even fans of actively managed funds often concede that most other investors would be better off in index funds. But buoyed by abundant self-confidence, these folks aren't about to give up on actively managed funds themselves. A tad delusional? I think so. Picking the best-performing funds is 'like trying to predict the dice before you roll them down the craps table,' says an investment adviser in Boca Raton, FL. 'I can't do it. The public can't do it.'”

Paul Samuelson

About This Quote

Source Article: Investment Strategies, Financial Times, 2022

Most investors would benefit from low‑cost index funds, yet confidence drives many to chase active managers despite low odds.

In simple terms: Index funds often outperform active ones, but people stay confident in active picks.

Key Takeaway

Consider low‑cost passive investing.

Themes

finance behavioral economics investment confidence risk

Mood

analytical pragmatic

Type

financial practical

When to use this quote

  • retirement planning
  • portfolio building
  • financial advice
  • risk management

Key Concepts

market efficiency behavioral bias

Questions to Reflect On

  • Do you overestimate your ability to pick winners?
  • How does confidence bias affect your portfolio?
A Different Perspective

Active funds may outperform in niche cases.

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