Human race Quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
““Our human race is affected by a chronic underestimation of the possibility of the future straying from the course initially envisioned (in addition to other biases that sometimes exert a compounding effect). To take an obvious example, think about how many people divorce. Almost all of them are acquainted with the statistic that between one-third and one-half of all marriages fail, something the parties involved did not forecast while tying the knot. Of course, "not us," because "we get along so well" (as if others tying the knot got along poorly).””
About This Quote
Source Book: Antifragile, 2012
People often underestimate future deviations from plans, leading to surprise outcomes like divorce, because they ignore bias and uncertainty.
In simple terms: We misjudge how much plans can go wrong.
Key Takeaway
Plan for uncertainty and accept bias.
Themes
bias
uncertainty
future
relationships
prediction
Mood
cautious
analytical
thoughtful
Type
strategic
philosophical
When to use this quote
- Marriage counseling
- financial planning
- career forecasting
- risk management
Key Concepts
Cognitive bias
probability misestimation
overconfidence
Questions to Reflect On
- What biases affect your long‑term decisions?
- How can you build resilience against unexpected changes?
A Different Perspective
Overconfidence can blind us to warning signs, making predictions unreliable.
![“both the Mosaic law and the grace of the new covenant, as both fitted for the times [at which they were given], were bestowed by one and the same God for the benefit of the human race.” quote by The Church Fathers](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/2e6/the-church-fathers-1438_grace_both-the-mosaic-law-and-the-grace-of-the_10309.jpg)
