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Black Quote by Martin Wolf

“People who think they know what is going to happen next are fools. Surprises - or what the brilliant author Nassim Taleb calls 'Black Swans' - are inevitable. Some are likely to be desperately unpleasant too” quote by Martin Wolf
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“People who think they know what is going to happen next are fools. Surprises - or what the brilliant author Nassim Taleb calls 'Black Swans' - are inevitable. Some are likely to be desperately unpleasant too”

Martin Wolf

About This Quote

Source Book: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007

People who claim certainty about the future are naive; unexpected events, especially extreme ones, are unavoidable and often harmful.

In simple terms: Assuming you know the future is foolish; surprises happen.

Key Takeaway

Embrace uncertainty and prepare for the unexpected.

Themes

uncertainty risk humility

Mood

cautious reflective

Type

philosophical advisory

When to use this quote

  • investment
  • policy planning
  • personal finance
  • disaster preparedness

Key Concepts

black swan probability cognitive bias

Questions to Reflect On

  • How do you account for low‑probability, high‑impact events?
  • What safeguards can you build against unexpected shocks?
A Different Perspective

Even with awareness, humans often underestimate the impact of rare events.

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