Black Quote by Martin Wolf
“People who think they know what is going to happen next are fools. Surprises - or what the brilliant author Nassim Taleb calls 'Black Swans' - are inevitable. Some are likely to be desperately unpleasant too”
About This Quote
Source Book: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007
People who claim certainty about the future are naive; unexpected events, especially extreme ones, are unavoidable and often harmful.
In simple terms: Assuming you know the future is foolish; surprises happen.
Embrace uncertainty and prepare for the unexpected.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- investment
- policy planning
- personal finance
- disaster preparedness
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you account for low‑probability, high‑impact events?
- What safeguards can you build against unexpected shocks?
Even with awareness, humans often underestimate the impact of rare events.