Confidence Quote by Gershom Gorenberg
““Pioneer social psychologist Leon Festinger made sense of that behavior in his 1950s study, When Prophecy Fails . Festinger and two colleagues closely followed a tiny American sect that predicted natural disasters from which the faithful would be saved by flying saucers. When the prophesied time passed, the small group of believers suddenly began trying to convince the world of their beliefs. Festinger's explanation: When a person believes in something, and the belief is clearly proved wrong, a gap opens between what the person sees and what he or she knows is true. You can shed the beliefs, but if you've staked a lot on them, that hurts. One medicine is an explanation proving that the belief is still true. And the best way to convince yourself is persuade others: "If more and more people can be convinced that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must, after all, be correct." Ergo, when a messianic figure dies or disappoints followers, or when a date set for the End passes, believers are likely to respond by evangelizing. At the least, they'll look for reassurance that they're right. That may explain why monthly sales of Left Behind books actually doubled in January 2000, after the Y2K bug failed to trigger the End.””
About This Quote
Source Book: The Believing Brain, by Michael Shermer, 2011
When beliefs are disproved, people may double down, seeking validation from others, especially in groups.
In simple terms: People reinforce false beliefs by convincing others after failure.
Seek evidence, stay open to change.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- religious sects
- political movements
- scientific communities
- online forums
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- Why do people cling to disproven beliefs?
- What role does community play in belief perseverance?
Group pressure can suppress critical thinking.