Skip to content

Certainty Quote by Gerd Gigerenzer

“Because these calculations generate precise numbers for an uncertain risk, they produce an illusory certainty.” quote by Gerd Gigerenzer
Download Open image
““Because these calculations generate precise numbers for an uncertain risk, they produce an illusory certainty.””

Gerd Gigerenzer

About This Quote

Source Book: Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer, 2014

Precise numbers can create a false sense of confidence when underlying risk is uncertain.

In simple terms: Numbers can mislead about risk.

Key Takeaway

Beware of overconfidence from exact figures.

Themes

risk certainty decisionmaking

Mood

cautious analytical

Type

warning educational

When to use this quote

  • finance
  • health
  • policy
  • engineering

Key Concepts

statistics cognitive bias

Questions to Reflect On

  • How do you validate certainty in uncertain situations?
  • When might precise numbers be harmful?
A Different Perspective

Exact data may hide variability and lead to poor choices.

2.9 out of 5 (10 ratings)

More by Gerd Gigerenzer

Explore all 7 Gerd Gigerenzer quotes

More Certainty quotes

Browse all 1,523 Certainty quotes