Accurate Quote by Elliott Sober
“It is an interesting fact about model selection that the evidence at hand can indicate that a model known to be false will be more predictively accurate than a model known to be true. This opens the door to a kind of instrumentalism.”
About This Quote
Sometimes a false model predicts better than a true one, suggesting practical usefulness can outweigh factual accuracy.
In simple terms: False models can be more useful than true ones.
Key Takeaway
Prioritize predictive performance over truth.
Themes
science
philosophy
modeling
Mood
critical
thoughtful
Type
philosophical
analytical
When to use this quote
- machine learning
- policy making
- medical diagnosis
- economic forecasting
Key Concepts
instrumentalism
epistemology
Questions to Reflect On
- When should we trust a false model?
- What are the risks of instrumentalism?
A Different Perspective
Reliance on false models may mislead decisions.
![“He [Groucho's father] had absolutely no training, and if you had ever seen one of his suits, you'd realize what an accurate statement that is. You see, Pop never used a tape measure. He didn't believe in it. He said he could just look at a man and tell hi.” quote by Groucho Marx](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/02f/groucho-marx-788_accurate_he-groucho-s-father-had-absolutely-no-tr_22161.jpg)
