Confidence Quote by Daniel Kahneman
““System 1 is designed to jump to conclusions from little evidence—and it is not designed to know the size of its jumps. Because of WYSIATI, only the evidence at hand counts. Because of confidence by coherence, the subjective confidence we have in our opinions reflects the coherence of the story that System 1 and System 2 have constructed. The amount of evidence and its quality do not count for much, because poor evidence can make a very good story.””
About This Quote
Source Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011
Fast thinking jumps to conclusions with limited evidence, while confidence often reflects story coherence rather than evidence quality.
In simple terms: Quick judgments rely on narrative, not data.
Key Takeaway
Question the coherence of your conclusions.
Themes
cognition
bias
decision making
confidence
system 1
system 2
Mood
reflective
analytical
Type
insightful
educational
When to use this quote
- investment decisions
- medical diagnoses
- legal judgments
- personal relationships
Key Concepts
WYSIATI
confidence‑by‑coherence
heuristics
dual‑process theory
Questions to Reflect On
- What evidence are you overlooking?
- How coherent is your story?
A Different Perspective
Fast intuition can mislead when evidence is weak.
