“The psychological bias here is called competition neglect, and was initially identified by Camerer and Lovallo (1999). The bias is quite simply when people do not consider that the results from their decision depends on how others will act.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“System 1 has a What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) bias, which only considers factors that are readily apparent at the time.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The idea of antifragility, for which evolution is the most important example, gives us tremendous guidance: o Seek out low-cost options in your business… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In the early phases, the structure exhibits exponential growth. This identifies the reinforcing loop. However, the balancing loop is effectively dormant. It's only later… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In real life situations, there are often many feedback loops present, with perhaps several dormant feedback loops lying in wait.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The negative effects of virtuous turned vicious loops is an extremely important lesson to keep in mind.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“7. Remember It’s Only a Model—Always remember George Box's excellent advice, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The feedback and delays you… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but seeing a… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Complexity can be categorized into two types: combinatorial and dynamic.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“if your business ecosystem seems stable, don't be lulled into a potentially false sense of security. Big changes can happen very quickly. Don't confuse… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together (Cowgill et… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In his excellent book Turtles, Termites, and Traffic Jams (1997), Mitchel Resnick outlines a list of five heuristics associated with the aggregation of interactions:… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In a prioritized list of further reading on this topic, there is no question what comes first: Peter Senge's The Fifth Discipline.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“To paraphrase Surowiecki and Mackay, there can be a fine line between the Wisdom of Crowds and the Madness of Crowds.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
