Allowing Quote by William Sealy Gosset
“I fancy you give me credit for being a more systematic sort of cove than I really am in the matter of limits of significance. What would actually happen would be that I should make out Pt (normal) and say to myself that would be about 50:1; pretty good but as it may not be normal we'd best not be too certain, or 100:1; even allowing that it may not be normal it seems good enough and whether one would be content with that or would require further work would depend on the importance of the conclusion and the difficulty of obtaining suitable experience.”
About This Quote
I tend to overstate my systematic approach, assigning arbitrary significance ratios without solid evidence, which may mislead conclusions.
In simple terms: I exaggerate certainty without enough data.
Key Takeaway
Base conclusions on solid evidence.
Themes
skepticism
methodology
uncertainty
statistics
Mood
critical
analytical
Type
academic
cautionary
When to use this quote
- research analysis
- policy decisions
- academic publishing
Key Concepts
significance testing
bias awareness
Questions to Reflect On
- What evidence would you need to trust a ratio?
- How do you guard against bias?
A Different Perspective
Overconfidence can distort findings.
