““the regression fallacy. The regression fallacy refers to the tendency to fail to recognize statistical regression when it occurs, and instead to “explain” the observed phenomena with superfluous and often complicated causal theories. A lesser performance that follows a brilliant one is attributed to slacking off; a slight improvement in felony statistics following a crime wave is attributed to a new law enforcement policy. The regression fallacy is analogous to the clustering illusion: Both represent cases of people extracting too much meaning from chance events.””
