Confession Quote by Stephen Stigler
“Beware of the problem of testing too many hypotheses; the more you torture the data, the more likely they are to confess, but confessions obtained under duress may not be admissible in the court of scientific opinion.”
About This Quote
Source Speech: Lecture on Scientific Method, Stephen Stigler, 1998
Overtesting hypotheses leads to data overfitting, producing results that may not hold under scrutiny.
In simple terms: Too many tests can fake findings.
Key Takeaway
Limit tests, protect data integrity.
Themes
science
methodology
integrity
statistics
Mood
critical
analytical
Type
cautionary
educational
When to use this quote
- research design
- clinical trials
- policy analysis
- market research
Key Concepts
bias
overfitting
replicability
Questions to Reflect On
- What balance ensures rigor without hindering innovation?
- How can you detect when data is being over‑manipulated?
A Different Perspective
Excessive caution may stifle exploratory discovery.
