““In 2014, there were about 6,000 searches for the exact phrase “how to kill your girlfriend” and 400 murders of girlfriends. If all of these murderers had made this exact search beforehand, that would mean 1 in 15 people who searched “how to kill your girlfriend” went through with it. Of course, many, probably most, people who murdered their girlfriends did not make this exact search. This would mean the true probability that this particular search led to murder is lower, probably a lot lower. But if data scientists could build a model that showed that the threat against a particular individual was, say, 1 in 100, we might want to do something with that information. At the least, the person under threat might have the right to be informed that there is a 1-in-100 chance she will be murdered by a particular person.””
