Causes Quote by Pierre-Simon Laplace
“If an event can be produced by a number n of different causes, the probabilities of the existence of these causes, given the event (prises de l'événement), are to each other as the probabilities of the event, given the causes: and the probability of each cause is equal to the probability of the event, given that cause, divided by the sum of all the probabilities of the event, given each of the causes.”
About This Quote
Source Treatise on Probability, 1812
When an event has multiple causes, each cause’s probability equals its likelihood given the event divided by the sum of all such likelihoods.
In simple terms: Cause probabilities are proportional to their likelihood given the event.
Key Takeaway
Calculate cause probabilities using Bayes‑like weighting.
Themes
probability
causation
statistics
Mood
critical
inquisitive
Type
theoretical
educational
When to use this quote
- risk assessment
- medical diagnosis
- fault analysis
Key Concepts
Bayesian inference
conditional probability
Questions to Reflect On
- What if causes overlap?
- How to handle unknown causes?
A Different Perspective
Assumes causes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
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