"We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right,……" — Nate Silver
"We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way."
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Nate Silver
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75 Quotes by Nate Silver
Nate Silver has 75 quotes on this site.
A few more worth reading:
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold…
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's…
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot…
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Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the…
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very…
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that…
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Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
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Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don’t have any discipline in how they look at the world, and…
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We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning.
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If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after…
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The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
See all 75 quotes by Nate Silver »
More Calibrated Quotes
This quote is filed under Calibrated Quotes,
one of 15 quotes in that category. Here are a few more:
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O truly enjoy... [a university], the individual-student or faculty-must harbor a well-calibrated sense of annoyance at the institution, entering into…
— Robin Winks
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Electronic music used pure sounds, completely calibrated. You had to think digitally, as it were, in a way that allowed…
— Luc Ferrari
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When I walk with a camera, I walk from shot to shot, reading the light on a calibrated meter. When…
— Annie Dillard
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For millions of years, this world has been a great gift to nearly everything living on it, a planet whose…
— Rebecca Solnit
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Whereas Schaeffer and Henry were working like samplers, their idea was to capture those sounds which couldn't be serially calibrated…
— Luc Ferrari
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I would warn against too much of a radical devotion to rationality. Rationality is an illusion, an invented concept, a…
— Derek R. Audette
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Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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My mother has always been the point I calibrated myself against. In knowing where she was, I could always locate…
— Sarah Dessen
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To his surprise, she leaned over and kissed him on the forehead, a kiss so full of affection that it…
— Richard Russo
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The world is not a solid continent of facts sprinkled by a few lakes of uncertainties, but a vast ocean…
— Bruno Latour
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Perhaps the depth of love can be calibrated by the number of different selves that are actively involved in a…
— Carl Sagan
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I'm not insane, sir. I have a finely calibrated sense of acceptable risk.
— John Scalzi
See all 15 Calibrated Quotes »