Always wrong Quote by Jane Jacobs
“People who try to predict the future by extrapolating in a line of more of what exists - they are always wrong.”
About This Quote
Predicting future trends by simply extending current patterns ignores disruptive forces and novel ideas, leading to systematic errors.
In simple terms: Linear extrapolation fails.
Key Takeaway
Expect surprise.
Themes
uncertainty
innovation
prediction
complexity
Mood
cautious
skeptical
Type
proverb
observation
When to use this quote
- strategic planning
- product development
- policy forecasting
Key Concepts
linear thinking
bias
disruption
Practical Applications
- scenario analysis
- risk assessment
Questions to Reflect On
- How can you incorporate unknown unknowns?
- What signals indicate a paradigm shift?
A Different Perspective
Some stable domains, like physics, can be extrapolated reliably, but most social systems are non‑linear.
